What's Going On?

Isn’t it amazing how quickly things change? It seems just yesterday my kids were babies, and now they are all on their own. It makes life exciting as we see the tremendous changes, although sometimes we’d like to slow down or even stop for a little while. Some people become depressed as they read the news and realize how bad the problems are. In reality, it reminds us how desperately mankind needs the Lord. Each thing that happens moves us a step closer to the Lord’s return, and the fulfillment of his promises. It is exciting to see what is going on today.

Because of their concern for what will affect their investments, some financial advisors report different events than the popular news media. They ignore stories such as Michael Jackson’s death, focusing instead on an election in a small, almost unknown country, because it will have a bigger impact world wide. They frequently have special meaning to me because of the trends they indicate, reminding me of how important the gospel is to our world.

Just a few short month ago, as the stock market fell, economic advisors were recommending investment in the developing nations, particularly Brazil, Russia, India, and China. All the BRIC nations had expanding economies, and appeared poised to boom economically. A group of investigators went to China to try and determine if it was actually good advice. The first thing they discovered was that China’s economy was largely dependent on sales to the United States, making the Chinese economy very dependent on the American economy. They warned that unless China could develop other markets, it would be at risk.

China is having trouble producing enough food for it’s population, and it is questionable whether modern agricultural methods can improve production sufficiently, given the lack of suitable land. This lack may well prevent continued economic growth. In addition, there is shortage of water to sustain the population and continued industrialization. It has been suggested that China pipe water from the Himalayas to meet their need. This will divert much of India’s water, but could be done without encroaching on Indian territory. To do so could well trigger war between the two countries, but may become necessary to sustain their economy.

India has a broader market base than China, but they are utilizing nearly all their arable land and water, Should China seize the water from the Himalayas, it would destroy much of India’s capacity to sustain itself. The investigators recommended cautious investment, noting that political change could wipe out any gains instantly.

Russia has become a major supplier of food. This year, drought and fires have destroyed much of her crops, straining the world food supply. As a result the prices of many food products have begun to increase dramatically. The cost of importing food will wreak havoc on the Russian economy, as well as slowing that of every other country who needs to import food.

Brazil has more available farm land than any other country in the world, and enough water to utilize it. They also have some of the world’s largest known oil reserves. Unfortunately their infrastructure is not sufficiently developed to take advantage of what they have. Several countries were interested in investing in Brazil’s agriculture and helping build the infrastructure to enable them to expand production. The expected winner of the present election wants to nationalize the oil and farming industries, making it unprofitable for foreign investors. As a result, foreign investment is on hold until it is clear what is going to happen. As a result, Brazil is unlikely to produce enough to ease the food situation this year.

Those who follow the petroleum industry are especially concerned that pulling out of Iraq before there is a strong central government may trigger economic disaster. The biggest conflict in establishing a solid government is strife between the Sunni and Shi-ite branches of the Moslem religion. While Hussein was a very real danger himself, he represented the minority group but was strong enough to block Iran’s expansionist goals. Since Iran is ruled by the same faction as the majority in both Iraq and Saudi Arabia, a weak Iraqi government could well lead to Iran taking both Iraq and Saudi Arabia, with serious consequences world wide.

The probable result would be a serious decline in Arab oil availability for the rest of the world, and a corresponding jump in energy prices. A war far larger than the Iraq war to prevent such a scenario is not out of the question. In addition, there would be serious implications for Israel’s survival. Nationalization of Brazil’s oil production will probably slow development there, and the moratorium on deep sea drilling around the U.S. has temporarily halted new drilling here, increasing the probability of shortages and price jumps.

Increased fuel costs will delay recovery even more, almost certainly triggering new efforts to stimulate the world economies. This will result in social pressures to make drastic changes in every economy around the world. These kinds of situations have allowed men like Hitler to control government in the past. They could well have the same effect today, setting the stage for the one called the Antichrist to come to power. It will be interesting to see how far it goes. God has said we are not to know the time. So I cannot say the second coming is at this time, but I can see how God is moving the entire world closer to it. It is neat to see how he is working worldwide.

I am so glad I don’t have to fix the economy, or our political situation. I have no idea how to, and I don’t believe our president, our congress, or anyone else does either. Every attempt to solve the problems appears to make them worse. I can simply focus on what God has commanded and trust him to take care of me. Seeing what is going on drives home the importance of trusting him. I have nothing to fear as long as he is in charge.